Accelerating Information Diffusion in Social Networks Under the Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible Epidemic Model

Standard Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (SIS) epidemic models assume that a message spreads from the infected to the susceptible nodes due to only susceptible-infected epidemic contact. We modify the standard SIS epidemic model to include direct recruitment of susceptible individuals to the infected class at a constant rate (independent of epidemic contacts), to accelerate information spreading in a social network. Such recruitment can be carried out by placing advertisements in the media. We provide a closed form analytical solution for system evolution in the proposed model and use it to study campaigning in two different scenarios. In the first, the net cost function is a linear combination of the reward due to extent of information diffusion and the cost due to application of control. In the second, the campaign budget is fixed. Results reveal the effectiveness of the proposed system in accelerating and improving the extent of information diffusion. Our work is useful for devising effective strategies for product marketing and political/social-awareness/crowd-funding campaigns that target individuals in a social network.

Japanese encephalitis: pathogenesis, prophylactics and therapeutics

Japanese encephalitis (JE) is one of the most dreaded mosquito-borne viral encephalitis known to afflict humans. The Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) is a neurotropic flavivirus that affects the CNS, causing extensive damage that may lead to fatality in about one third of bpatients. Half of the survivors suffer from severe neuropshychiatric sequelae. With nearly 3 billion people living under the current JE-endemic region, recurring incidents of epidemic are being reported at regular intervals. With no established antiviral therapies against JE available, vaccination has been the only way of preventing JE. Two types of JE vaccines are currently in vogue although the safety of administering them is questionable, in certain individuals. Thus, there is a need to develop a safe, affordable and potent JE vaccine and this review addresses the current efforts in this direction. This review also focuses on the pathophysiology of JE and efforts towards a possible breakthrough in anti-JEV therapy.

Estimating Frequencies of Minority Nevirapine-Resistant Strains in Chronically HIV-1-Infected Individuals Naive to Nevirapine by Using Stochastic Simulations and a Mathematical Model

Nevirapine forms the mainstay of our efforts to curtail the pediatric AIDS epidemic through prevention of mother-to-child transmission of HIV-1. A key limitation, however, is the rapid selection of HIV-1 strains resistant to nevirapine following the administration of a single dose. This rapid selection of resistance suggests that nevirapine-resistant strains preexist in HIV-1 patients and may adversely affect outcomes of treatment. The frequencies of nevirapine-resistant strains in vivo, however, remain poorly estimated, possibly because they exist as a minority below current assay detection limits. Here, we employ stochastic simulations and a mathematical model to estimate the frequencies of strains carrying different combinations of the common nevirapine resistance mutations K103N, V106A, Y181C, Y188C, and G190A in chronically infected HIV-1 patients naive to nevirapine. We estimate the relative fitness of mutant strains from an independent analysis of previous competitive growth assays. We predict that single mutants are likely to preexist in patients at frequencies (similar to 0.01% to 0.001%) near or below current assay detection limits (>0.01%), emphasizing the need for more-sensitive assays. The existence of double mutants is subject to large stochastic variations. Triple and higher mutants are predicted not to exist. Our estimates are robust to variations in the recombination rate, cellular superinfection frequency, and the effective population size. Thus, with 10(7) to 10(8) infected cells in HIV-1 patients, even when undetected, nevirapine-resistant genomes may exist in substantial numbers and compromise efforts to prevent mother-to-child transmission of HIV-1, accelerate the failure of subsequent antiretroviral treatments, and facilitate the transmission of drug resistance.

The PE and PPE proteins of Mycobacterium tuberculosis

India already has earned the dubious distinction of being one of the countries with the highest incidence of tuberculosis (TB). The conventional control measures have had little impact on the relentless march of the TB epidemic. Potential solutions to this problem include the development of new drugs and an effective TB vaccine. In this perspective, identification of the mycobacterial components that have important role(s) in the establishment of the infection assumes crucial importance. Mycobacterium tuberculosis is an intracellular pathogen and it resides inside the macrophage, which is considered to be the most important component of the immune system. M. tuberculosis possesses two highly polymorphic sets of genes called the PE and PPE families. These unique families of proteins account for about 10% of the mycobacterial genome and have drawn considerable interest from different schools of M. tuberculosis researchers across the globe. In this review, we discuss the importance of these proteins in the regulation of dendritic cell and macrophage immune-effector functions, as well as the relevance of these proteins in the clinical manifestation of TB. This information may be helpful to better understand the immunological importance of PE/PPE proteins and their roles in mycobacterial virulence. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Molecular Epidemiology of HIV-1 Subtypes in India: Origin and Evolutionary History of the Predominant Subtype C

Background: India has the third largest HIV-1 epidemic with 2.4 million infected individuals. Molecular epidemiological analysis has identified the predominance of HIV-1 subtype C (HIV-1C). However, the previous reports have been limited by sample size, and uneven geographical distribution. The introduction of HIV-1C in India remains uncertain due to this lack of structured studies. To fill the gap, we characterised the distribution pattern of HIV-1 subtypes in India based on data collection from nationwide clinical cohorts between 2007 and 2011. We also reconstructed the time to the most recent common ancestor (tMRCA) of the predominant HIV-1C strains. Methodology/Principal Findings: Blood samples were collected from 168 HIV-1 seropositive subjects from 7 different states. HIV-1 subtypes were determined using two or three genes, gag, pol, and env using several methods. Bayesian coalescent-based approach was used to reconstruct the time of introduction and population growth patterns of the Indian HIV-1C. For the first time, a high prevalence (10%) of unique recombinant forms (BC and A1C) was observed when two or three genes were used instead of one gene (p<0.01; p = 0.02, respectively). The tMRCA of Indian HIV-1C was estimated using the three viral genes, ranged from 1967 (gag) to 1974 (env). Pol-gene analysis was considered to provide the most reliable estimate 1971, (95% CI: 1965-1976)]. The population growth pattern revealed an initial slow growth phase in the mid-1970s, an exponential phase through the 1980s, and a stationary phase since the early 1990s. Conclusions/Significance: The Indian HIV-1C epidemic originated around 40 years ago from a single or few genetically related African lineages, and since then largely evolved independently. The effective population size in the country has been broadly stable since the 1990s. The evolving viral epidemic, as indicated by the increase of recombinant strains, warrants a need for continued molecular surveillance to guide efficient disease intervention strategies.

Co-evolution of content popularity and delivery in mobile P2P networks

Mobile P2P technology provides a scalable approach for content delivery to a large number of users on their mobile devices. In this work, we study the dissemination of a single item of content (e. g., an item of news, a song or a video clip) among a population of mobile nodes. Each node in the population is either a destination (interested in the content) or a potential relay (not yet interested in the content). There is an interest evolution process by which nodes not yet interested in the content (i.e., relays) can become interested (i.e., become destinations) on learning about the popularity of the content (i.e., the number of already interested nodes). In our work, the interest in the content evolves under the linear threshold model. The content is copied between nodes when they make random contact. For this we employ a controlled epidemic spread model. We model the joint evolution of the copying process and the interest evolution process, and derive joint fluid limit ordinary differential equations. We then study the selection of parameters under the content provider's control, for the optimization of various objective functions that aim at maximizing content popularity and efficient content delivery.

Optimal forwarding in delay tolerant networks with multiple destinations

We study the trade-off between delivery delay and energy consumption in a delay tolerant network in which a message (or a file) has to be delivered to each of several destinations by epidemic relaying. In addition to the destinations, there are several other nodes in the network that can assist in relaying the message. We first assume that, at every instant, all the nodes know the number of relays carrying the packet and the number of destinations that have received the packet. We formulate the problem as a controlled continuous time Markov chain and derive the optimal closed loop control (i.e., forwarding policy). However, in practice, the intermittent connectivity in the network implies that the nodes may not have the required perfect knowledge of the system state. To address this issue, we obtain an ODE (i.e., fluid) approximation for the optimally controlled Markov chain. This fluid approximation also yields an asymptotically optimal open loop policy. Finally, we evaluate the performance of the deterministic policy over finite networks. Numerical results show that this policy performs close to the optimal closed loop policy.

Non-polio enteroviruses and their association with acute diarrhea in children in India

A causative agent in approximately 40% of diarrhea] cases. still remains unidentified. Though many enteroviruses (EVs) are transmitted through fecal-oral route and replicate in the intestinal cells, their association with acute diarrhea has not so far been recognized due to lack of detailed epidemiological investigations. This long-term, detailed molecular epidemiological study aims to conclusively determine the association of non-polio enteroviruses (NPEVs) with acute diarrhea in comaparison with rotavirus (RV) in children. Diarrheal stool specimens from 2161 children aged 0-2 years and 169 children between 2 and 9 years, and 1800 normal stool samples from age-matched healthy children between 0 and 9 years were examined during 2008-2012 for enterovirus (oral polio vaccine strains (OPVs) and NPEVs). Enterovirus serotypes were identified by complete VP1 gene sequence analysis. Enterovirus and rotavirus were detected in 19.01% (380/2330) and 13.82% (322/2330) diarrheal stools. During the study period, annual prevalence of EV- and RV-associated diarrhea ranged between 8% and 22%, but with contrasting seasonal prevalence with RV predominating during winter months and NPEV prevailing in other seasons. NPEVs are associated with epidemics-like outbreaks during which they are detected in up to 50% of diarrheic children, and in non-epidemic seasons in 0-10% of the patients. After subtraction of OPV-positive diarrheal cases (1.81%), while NPEVs are associated with about 17% of acute diarrhea, about 6% of healthy children showed asymptomatic NPEV excretion. Of 37 NPEV serotypes detected in diarrheal children, seven echovirus types 1, 7, 11, 13, 14, 30 and 33 are frequently observed, with Ell being more prevalent followed by E30. In conclusion, NPEVs are significantly associated with acute diarrhea, and NPEVs and rotavirus exhibit contrasting seasonal predominance. This study signifies the need for a new direction of research on enteroviruses involving systematic analysis of their contribution to diarrheal burden. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Stochastic analysis of epidemics on adaptive time varying networks

Many studies investigating the effect of human social connectivity structures (networks) and human behavioral adaptations on the spread of infectious diseases have assumed either a static connectivity structure or a network which adapts itself in response to the epidemic (adaptive networks). However, human social connections are inherently dynamic or time varying. Furthermore, the spread of many infectious diseases occur on a time scale comparable to the time scale of the evolving network structure. Here we aim to quantify the effect of human behavioral adaptations on the spread of asymptomatic infectious diseases on time varying networks. We perform a full stochastic analysis using a continuous time Markov chain approach for calculating the outbreak probability, mean epidemic duration, epidemic reemergence probability, etc. Additionally, we use mean-field theory for calculating epidemic thresholds. Theoretical predictions are verified using extensive simulations. Our studies have uncovered the existence of an ``adaptive threshold,'' i.e., when the ratio of susceptibility (or infectivity) rate to recovery rate is below the threshold value, adaptive behavior can prevent the epidemic. However, if it is above the threshold, no amount of behavioral adaptations can prevent the epidemic. Our analyses suggest that the interaction patterns of the infected population play a major role in sustaining the epidemic. Our results have implications on epidemic containment policies, as awareness campaigns and human behavioral responses can be effective only if the interaction levels of the infected populace are kept in check.

Optimal Forwarding in Delay-Tolerant Networks With Multiple Destinations

We study the tradeoff between delivery delay and energy consumption in a delay-tolerant network in which a message (or a file) has to be delivered to each of several destinations by epidemic relaying. In addition to the destinations, there are several other nodes in the network that can assist in relaying the message. We first assume that, at every instant, all the nodes know the number of relays carrying the message and the number of destinations that have received the message. We formulate the problem as a controlled continuous-time Markov chain and derive the optimal closed-loop control (i.e., forwarding policy). However, in practice, the intermittent connectivity in the network implies that the nodes may not have the required perfect knowledge of the system state. To address this issue, we obtain an ordinary differential equation (ODE) (i.e., a deterministic fluid) approximation for the optimally controlled Markov chain. This fluid approximation also yields an asymptotically optimal open-loop policy. Finally, we evaluate the performance of the deterministic policy over finite networks. Numerical results show that this policy performs close to the optimal closed-loop policy.

How to run a campaign: Optimal control of SIS and SIR information epidemics

Information spreading in a population can be modeled as an epidemic. Campaigners (e.g., election campaign managers, companies marketing products or movies) are interested in spreading a message by a given deadline, using limited resources. In this paper, we formulate the above situation as an optimal control problem and the solution (using Pontryagin's Maximum Principle) prescribes an optimal resource allocation over the time of the campaign. We consider two different scenarios-in the first, the campaigner can adjust a direct control (over time) which allows her to recruit individuals from the population (at some cost) to act as spreaders for the Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (SIS) epidemic model. In the second case, we allow the campaigner to adjust the effective spreading rate by incentivizing the infected in the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model, in addition to the direct recruitment. We consider time varying information spreading rate in our formulation to model the changing interest level of individuals in the campaign, as the deadline is reached. In both the cases, we show the existence of a solution and its uniqueness for sufficiently small campaign deadlines. For the fixed spreading rate, we show the effectiveness of the optimal control strategy against the constant control strategy, a heuristic control strategy and no control. We show the sensitivity of the optimal control to the spreading rate profile when it is time varying. (C) 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Optimal control of information epidemics modeled as Maki Thompson rumors

We model the spread of information in a homogeneously mixed population using the Maki Thompson rumor model. We formulate an optimal control problem, from the perspective of single campaigner, to maximize the spread of information when the campaign budget is fixed. Control signals, such as advertising in the mass media, attempt to convert ignorants and stiflers into spreaders. We show the existence of a solution to the optimal control problem when the campaigning incurs non-linear costs under the isoperimetric budget constraint. The solution employs Pontryagin's Minimum Principle and a modified version of forward backward sweep technique for numerical computation to accommodate the isoperimetric budget constraint. The techniques developed in this paper are general and can be applied to similar optimal control problems in other areas. We have allowed the spreading rate of the information epidemic to vary over the campaign duration to model practical situations when the interest level of the population in the subject of the campaign changes with time. The shape of the optimal control signal is studied for different model parameters and spreading rate profiles. We have also studied the variation of the optimal campaigning costs with respect to various model parameters. Results indicate that, for some model parameters, significant improvements can be achieved by the optimal strategy compared to the static control strategy. The static strategy respects the same budget constraint as the optimal strategy and has a constant value throughout the campaign horizon. This work finds application in election and social awareness campaigns, product advertising, movie promotion and crowdfunding campaigns. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Dynamics of history-dependent epidemics in temporal networks

The structural properties of temporal networks often influence the dynamical processes that occur on these networks, e.g., bursty interaction patterns have been shown to slow down epidemics. In this paper, we investigate the effect of link lifetimes on the spread of history-dependent epidemics. We formulate an analytically tractable activity-driven temporal network model that explicitly incorporates link lifetimes. For Markovian link lifetimes, we use mean-field analysis for computing the epidemic threshold, while the effect of non-Markovian link lifetimes is studied using simulations. Furthermore, we also study the effect of negative correlation between the number of links spawned by an individual and the lifetimes of those links. Such negative correlations may arise due to the finite cognitive capacity of the individuals. Our investigations reveal that heavy-tailed link lifetimes slow down the epidemic, while negative correlations can reduce epidemic prevalence. We believe that our results help shed light on the role of link lifetimes in modulating diffusion processes on temporal networks.

First-in-Class Inhibitors of Sulfur Metabolism with Bactericidal Activity against Non-Replicating M-tuberculosis

Development of effective therapies to eradicate persistent, slowly replicating M. tuberculosis (Mtb) represents a significant challenge to controlling the global TB epidemic. To develop such therapies, it is imperative to translate information from metabolome and proteome adaptations of persistent Mtb into the drug discovery screening platforms. To this end, reductive sulfur metabolism is genetically and pharmacologically implicated in survival, pathogenesis, and redox homeostasis of persistent Mtb. Therefore, inhibitors of this pathway are expected to serve as powerful tools in its preclinical and clinical validation as a therapeutic target for eradicating persisters. Here, we establish a first functional HTS platform for identification of APS reductase (APSR) inhibitors, a critical enzyme in the assimilation of sulfate for the biosynthesis of cysteine and other essential sulfur-containing molecules. Our HTS campaign involving 38?350 compounds led to the discovery of three distinct structural classes of APSR inhibitors. A class of bioactive compounds with known pharmacology displayed potent bactericidal activity in wild-type Mtb as well as MDR and XDR clinical isolates. Top compounds showed markedly diminished potency in a conditional Delta APSR mutant, which could be restored by complementation with Mtb APSR. Furthermore, ITC studies on representative compounds provided evidence for direct engagement of the APSR target. Finally, potent APSR inhibitors significantly decreased the cellular levels of key reduced sulfur-containing metabolites and also induced an oxidative shift in mycothiol redox potential of live Mtb, thus providing functional validation of our screening data. In summary, we have identified first-in-class inhibitors of APSR that can serve as molecular probes in unraveling the links between Mtb persistence, antibiotic tolerance, and sulfate assimilation, in addition to their potential therapeutic value.

Campaigning in Heterogeneous Social Networks: Optimal Control of SI Information Epidemics

We study the optimal control problem of maximizing the spread of an information epidemic on a social network. Information propagation is modeled as a susceptible-infected (SI) process, and the campaign budget is fixed. Direct recruitment and word-of-mouth incentives are the two strategies to accelerate information spreading (controls). We allow for multiple controls depending on the degree of the nodes/individuals. The solution optimally allocates the scarce resource over the campaign duration and the degree class groups. We study the impact of the degree distribution of the network on the controls and present results for Erdos-Renyi and scale-free networks. Results show that more resource is allocated to high-degree nodes in the case of scale-free networks, but medium-degree nodes in the case of Erdos-Renyi networks. We study the effects of various model parameters on the optimal strategy and quantify the improvement offered by the optimal strategy over the static and bang-bang control strategies. The effect of the time-varying spreading rate on the controls is explored as the interest level of the population in the subject of the campaign may change over time. We show the existence of a solution to the formulated optimal control problem, which has nonlinear isoperimetric constraints, using novel techniques that is general and can be used in other similar optimal control problems. This work may be of interest to political, social awareness, or crowdfunding campaigners and product marketing managers, and with some modifications may be used for mitigating biological epidemics.